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articles:a_matter_of_risk [2019/12/17 22:13]
rrandall [A Matter of "Risk"]
articles:a_matter_of_risk [2020/02/13 11:25] (current)
rrandall [A Matter of "Risk"]
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 This article will discuss two of the most "​commonly"​ used definitions. This article will discuss two of the most "​commonly"​ used definitions.
  
-  - The first definition is that "​risk"​ can be positive, negative, or both (e.g., for a type of risk involving action-related decisions, such as investment decisions; addressing the consequences of taking some action, as well as __not__ taking that action). This definition appears in Appendix 2 of [[https://​www.iso.org/​sites/​directives/​current/​part1/​index.xhtml|ISO/​IEC Directives-Part 1]]:2019, ISO 9000:2015, ISO 14001:2015, ISO 19011:2018, ISO 31000:2018 & ISO Guide 73:2009) +  - The "​non-traditional" ​definition is that "​risk"​ can be positive, negative, or both (e.g., for a type of risk involving action-related decisions, such as investment decisions; addressing the consequences of taking some action, as well as __not__ taking that action). This definition appears in Appendix 2 of [[https://​www.iso.org/​sites/​directives/​current/​part1/​index.xhtml|ISO/​IEC Directives-Part 1]]:2019, ISO 9000:2015, ISO 14001:2015, ISO 19011:2018, ISO 31000:2018 & ISO Guide 73:2009) 
-  - The second ​definition is that "​risk"​ is always "​negative"​ (e.g., for a type of risk involving an existing process, such as operational risks). This definition appears in ISO 13485:2016, ISO 45001:2018, ISO/IEC Guide 51:2014, along with popular industry standards (e.g., ICH Q9, API Spec Q1 & SAE AS9100C) and government publications (e.g., CNSS Instruction No. 4009 & NIST SP 800-30)+  - The "​traditional" ​definition is that "​risk"​ is always "​negative"​ (e.g., for a type of risk involving an existing process, such as operational risks). This definition appears in ISO 13485:2016, ISO 45001:2018, ISO/IEC Guide 51:2014, along with popular industry standards (e.g., ICH Q9, API Spec Q1 & SAE AS9100C) and government publications (e.g., CNSS Instruction No. 4009 & NIST SP 800-30)
  
 While ISO promotes (through marketing) that “//the world agrees//” on ISO standards, in reality, committee work is often contentious. Many ISO standards are adopted through compromise (lose-lose),​ rather than collaboration (win-win). And when it comes to defining the word "​risk",​ there is little agreement. While ISO promotes (through marketing) that “//the world agrees//” on ISO standards, in reality, committee work is often contentious. Many ISO standards are adopted through compromise (lose-lose),​ rather than collaboration (win-win). And when it comes to defining the word "​risk",​ there is little agreement.
  
 {{ :​articles:​iso-when_the_world_compromises.png?​nolink&​800 |}} {{ :​articles:​iso-when_the_world_compromises.png?​nolink&​800 |}}
 +
 +Since the beginning of the 21st century, ISO has been transitioning from a group supported by individual nations; to a central body dictating to those individual nations. It seems that with each new revision to an ISO standard, their increasingly globalist agenda becomes more evident.
 +
 +<note important>​The [[https://​dictionary.cambridge.org/​us/​dictionary/​|Cambridge Dictionary]] defines a "​[[https://​dictionary.cambridge.org/​us/​dictionary/​english/​globalist|globalist]]"​ as: \\ //someone who believes that economic and foreign policy should be planned in an international way, rather than according to what is best for one particular country//</​note>​
 ===== Non-Traditional Definition of Risk ===== ===== Non-Traditional Definition of Risk =====
  
 ==== ISO/IEC Directives-Part 1. Annex L (originally Annex SL) ==== ==== ISO/IEC Directives-Part 1. Annex L (originally Annex SL) ====
  
-While the origin of the non-traditional definition for risk //may// have been "ISO Guide 73", the "​driving force" promoting this definition is [[https://​www.iso.org/​sites/​directives/​current/​part1/​index.xhtml|ISO/​IEC Directives-Part 1]]:2019, Annex L (originally Annex SL), Appendix 2 .+While the origin of the non-traditional definition for risk //may// have been "ISO Guide 73", the "​driving force" ​currently ​promoting this definition is [[https://​www.iso.org/​sites/​directives/​current/​part1/​index.xhtml|ISO/​IEC Directives-Part 1]]:2019, Annex L (originally Annex SL), Appendix 2 .
  
 Prior to 2012, various standards for management systems were written in different/​inconsistent structures. When users would implement two or more of these management system standards (e.g., ISO 9001 for quality management and ISO 14001 for environmental management),​ this led to challenges in aligning/​integrating the same or similar concepts into one cohesive management system structure. Prior to 2012, various standards for management systems were written in different/​inconsistent structures. When users would implement two or more of these management system standards (e.g., ISO 9001 for quality management and ISO 14001 for environmental management),​ this led to challenges in aligning/​integrating the same or similar concepts into one cohesive management system structure.
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 As we can see, there are differences between ISO Annex SL, ISO 9000:2015, ISO 14001:2015, ISO 31000:2018 & ISO Guide 73:2009 regarding the concept of "​risk";​ whether it be through the definitions or clarification notes provided. As we can see, there are differences between ISO Annex SL, ISO 9000:2015, ISO 14001:2015, ISO 31000:2018 & ISO Guide 73:2009 regarding the concept of "​risk";​ whether it be through the definitions or clarification notes provided.
  
 +<note tip>To use an analogy, the online dictionary "​[[https://​www.wordnik.com/​|Wordnik]]"​ includes two definitions for the word  [[https://​www.wordnik.com/​words/​day|"​day"​]]:​ \\
 +n. The period of light between dawn and nightfall; the interval from sunrise to sunset. \\
 +n. The 24-hour period during which the earth completes one rotation on its axis, traditionally measured from midnight to midnight. ​ \\
 + \\
 +Using this analogy, ISO //defines// "​risk"​ as being both "​negative"​ and "​positive"​ in much the same way as a "​day"​ can be interpreted as including both "​light"​ and "​darkness"​. However, the term "risks and opportunities"​ are used repeatedly in standards such as ISO 9001 & ISO 17025 in much the same way that one might casually refer to "​day"​ and "​night"​ as both occurring during a 24-hour "​day"​.</​note>​
 ==== Criticism of the ISO definition for "​Risk"​ ==== ==== Criticism of the ISO definition for "​Risk"​ ====
  
 [[https://​www.uis.no/​getfile.php/​13453650/​SEROS/​cv-aven-August%2021%20-%202018.pdf|Terje Aven]] holds a Master'​s degree (cand. real) and PhD (dr. philos) in Mathematical Statistics and Risk/​Reliability Analysis from the University of Oslo, 1980 and 1984, respectively. Professor of Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the [[https://​www.uis.no/?​lang=en_GB#​Studies|University of Stavanger (UiS)]] (1992-), Aven is Editor-in-Chief of the "​Journal of Risk and Reliability",​ and Area Editor of "Risk analysis in Policy",​ and he is currently President of the "​International Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)"​. He was the Chairman of the "​European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA)"​ in the period 2014-2018 (June). He is also a principal researcher at the "​International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS)"​ (1985-). [[https://​www.uis.no/​getfile.php/​13453650/​SEROS/​cv-aven-August%2021%20-%202018.pdf|Terje Aven]] holds a Master'​s degree (cand. real) and PhD (dr. philos) in Mathematical Statistics and Risk/​Reliability Analysis from the University of Oslo, 1980 and 1984, respectively. Professor of Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the [[https://​www.uis.no/?​lang=en_GB#​Studies|University of Stavanger (UiS)]] (1992-), Aven is Editor-in-Chief of the "​Journal of Risk and Reliability",​ and Area Editor of "Risk analysis in Policy",​ and he is currently President of the "​International Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)"​. He was the Chairman of the "​European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA)"​ in the period 2014-2018 (June). He is also a principal researcher at the "​International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS)"​ (1985-).
  
-In his book, [[https://​www.amazon.com/​Quantitative-Risk-Assessment-Scientific-Platform/​dp/​0521760577|"​Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Scientific Platform"​]] (2011), Professor Aven expressed criticism in how ISO has chosen to approach "​risk"​. Acknowledging that risk is related to uncertainty,​ but questions whether it really is a consequence of uncertainty. Is it rather a consequence of an existing hazard, or a cause or the exposure to the hazard? Risk is related to objectives, but if there are no objectives defined, are there no risks either? ​ThE ISO definition can undoubtedly lead to various interpretations. Such a definition is not precise enough, which should be its main purpose, and therefore its purpose can be regarded as questionable.+In his book, [[https://​www.amazon.com/​Quantitative-Risk-Assessment-Scientific-Platform/​dp/​0521760577|"​Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Scientific Platform"​]] (2011), Professor Aven expressed criticism in how ISO has chosen to approach "​risk"​. Acknowledging that risk is related to uncertainty,​ but questions whether it really is a consequence of uncertainty. Is it rather a consequence of an existing hazard, or a cause or the exposure to the hazard? Risk is related to objectives, but if there are no objectives defined, are there no risks either? ​The ISO definition can undoubtedly lead to various interpretations. Such a definition is not precise enough, which should be its main purpose, and therefore its purpose can be regarded as questionable.
  
 An excellent discussion on this topic is contained in the [[https://​www.sra.org/​sites/​default/​files/​pdf/​SRA%20Glossary%20-%20FINAL.pdf|The SRA Glossary of Risk-Related Terminology]]. An excellent discussion on this topic is contained in the [[https://​www.sra.org/​sites/​default/​files/​pdf/​SRA%20Glossary%20-%20FINAL.pdf|The SRA Glossary of Risk-Related Terminology]].